I. Managing the size and composition of the student population of the University of Hawaiʻi system in the third decade requires an understanding of demographic trends—globally, nationally, and statewide.
Currently at 7.8 billion, the global population is growing, though at a slower rate than in the last century. The annual growth rate, which peaked at 2% a year in the 1960s, is now 1.05%. Current projections are for a total population of 8.6 billion in 2030 and 9.8 billion in 2050.
Asia, Africa, and Latin America will account for virtually all population growth. Asia, the most populous continent at 3.9 billion, will still add the largest numerical growth, despite a substantial decline in birth rates. Europe’s population is expected to decline from 736 million in 2008 to 685 million in 2050.
The world’s urban population will reach two-thirds of the total by 2050. Urban population will more than double in Asia. In North America, it is expected to reach 90% by 2050. Among the many effects of this rural-to-urban shift is the projected drop in the number of people who live in “education deserts”—areas underserved by institutions of higher education.
China’s population (currently at 1.39 billion) will begin to decline well before 2050, as a result of its “one child” population policy. This means not only that China’s workforce will shrink, but also that the proportion of its population that is dependent will grow significantly.
The 21 APEC countries have about 40% of the global population (2.9 billion in 2017); their populations are currently growing at a rate of 0.7%. The Philippines, the U.S. and Mexico are the fastest growing of the APEC countries. Japan’s population, currently about 127 million, is expected to fall below 106 million by 2050. Not only is Japan’s population declining but also its inhabitants (median age 48.4) are aging out of the work force. As a group, APEC countries have an aging population: the proportion aged 0-14 has fallen from 22.7% in 2005 to 19.7% in 2017, while the proportion aged 65 and older has grown from 8.7% to 11.2% in that period.
Although global population growth is slowing, education levels are growing rapidly. The number of people in the world with a post-secondary education—estimated at 422 million at the beginning of the 21st century—is expected to grow four-fold (to 1.68 billion) by the century’s halfway mark. i
While sub-Saharan African countries still educate fewer than 10% of their college-going age cohort, almost all countries have dramatically increased participation rates. China (51% enrolled) and India (28% enrolled), currently the world’s largest academic systems, have been growing rapidly. However, the recent decline of the traditional student age cohort in China is causing some universities there to scramble for students.
Globally, the percentage of the relevant age cohort enrolled in tertiary education has grown from 19% in 2000 to 26% in 2007 and 38% in 2018. In 2014 there were 207 million tertiary students globally, roughly twice the number in 2000. By 2040 this number is projected to be almost 600 million.
These trends are clearly not evenly spread across the globe. Cost remains an enormous barrier to access. Even where tuition is free, students have to bear indirect costs such as living expenses and loss of current income. Inequality among national higher education systems as well as within countries has increased in recent decades. A June 2020 study found that the leading East Asian universities continue to be dominated by male students, even as overall student populations there decline. ii For the world’s poorest countries and most resource- deprived universities, the opportunities to engage internationally can be extremely limited.
According to UNESCO, there were 5.3 million students studying outside their home countries in 2017 (up from 4.2 million in 2013 and only 2 million in 2000). Of this number 22% came from East Asia (17.4% from China alone), 18.4% from Europe, and 6.25% from India. Just under half were enrolled in only four countries: the U.S. (24%), U.K. (11%), Australia and France (7% each). A relative newcomer to the list of host countries is China, which enrolled 10% of these students.
However, for the past three years, U.S. universities have encountered greater difficulties in recruiting internationally. In November 2019, the Institute of International Education reported that in the 2018-19 academic year, new enrollment of international students at U.S. universities was 269,383, compared to 300,743 in 2015-16, a decline of 10.4%. In part this is because students from leading “sending” countries such as China and India have better homegrown opportunities than they did earlier. In the case of China, the numbers coming to the U.S. have also been adversely affected by the recent rise in tensions between the two countries. But in general, the tightening of visa restrictions by the Trump administration as well as widespread publicity given to shootings on U.S. campuses are thought to have had especially adverse effects on enrollments of international students.
The percentage of international students enrolled at the University of Hawaiʻi lags significantly behind that of other public universities in the Western U.S. Whereas international students at the University of California campuses at San Diego, Berkeley, and Los Angeles amount to 19%, 13%, and 12% respectively, and the Universities of Washington and Oregon show international enrollments of 16% and 10%, the figures at UH-Hilo and UH-Mānoa are only 4% and 3%, respectively. iii
When international students travel abroad for education, they are usually focused on a field of study (unlike U.S. students going to college, who are often “undecided” or “undeclared” at the outset). Students from several of the major “sending” countries are seeking accredited engineering degrees or business degrees putting a significant number of U.S. institutions that lack these programs at a recruiting disadvantage.
The table below shows the fields of study for all international students in the U.S.
| Field of Study | 2018/19 | 2019/20 | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Agriculture | 13,754 | 13,134 | -4.5% |
| Agriculture | 8,538 | 7,857 | -8.0% |
| Natural Resources and Conservation | 5,216 | 5,277 | 1.2% |
| Business and Management | 182,170 | 174,470 | -4.2% |
| Communications and Journalism | 24,017 | 23,925 | -0.4% |
| Communication, Journalism | 19,797 | 20,587 | 4.0% |
| Communications Technologies/Technicians | 4,220 | 3,338 | -20.9% |
| Education | 16,786 | 15,700 | -6.5% |
| Engineering | 230,780 | 220,542 | -4.4% |
| Engineering | 214,331 | 202,697 | -5.4% |
| Engineering Technologies/Technicians | 13,275 | 14,081 | 6.1% |
| Transportation and Materials Moving | 2,085 | 2,690 | 29.0% |
| Mechanic and Repair Technologies/Technicians | 605 | 587 | -3.0% |
| Construction Trades | 313 | 147 | -53.0% |
| Military Technologies | 89 | 263 | 195.5% |
| Precision Production | 82 | 77 | -6.1% |
| Fine and Applied Arts | 63,097 | 64,501 | 2.2% |
| Visual and Performing Arts | 48,407 | 49,542 | 2.3% |
| Architecture | 14,690 | 14,959 | 1.8% |
| Health Professions | 35,446 | 34,934 | -1.4% |
| Health Professions | 35,269 | 34,711 | -1.6% |
| Residency Programs | 177 | 223 | 26.0% |
| Humanities | 17,013 | 16,992 | -0.1% |
| Foreign Languages, Literatures and Linguistics | 7,357 | 7,293 | -0.9% |
| English Language and Literature/Letters | 4,916 | 4,715 | -4.1% |
| Philosophy and Religious Studies | 2,673 | 2,896 | 8.3% |
| Theology and Religious Vocations | 2,067 | 2,088 | 1.0% |
| Intensive English | 22,026 | 21,301 | -3.3% |
| Legal Studies and Law Enforcement | 16,483 | 16,269 | -1.3% |
| Legal Professions and Studies | 14,161 | 14,198 | 0.3% |
| Homeland Security, Law Enforcement, and Firefighting | 2,322 | 2,071 | -10.8% |
| Math and Computer Science | 203,461 | 205,207 | 0.9% |
| Computer and Information Sciences | 156,654 | 57,566 | 0.6% |
| Mathematics and Statistics | 46,807 | 47,641 | 1.8% |
| Physical and Life Sciences | 81,580 | 81,971 | 0.5% |
| Biological and Biomedical Sciences | 45,338 | 45,298 | -0.1% |
| Physical Sciences | 35,349 | 35,773 | 1.2% |
| Science Technologies/Technicians | 893 | 900 | 0.8% |
| Social Sciences | 84,320 | 84,440 | 0.1% |
| Social Sciences | 54,651 | 54,404 | -0.5% |
| Psychology | 16,139 | 16,984 | 5.2% |
| Public Administration and Social Service Professions | 8,248 | 7,739 | -6.2% |
| Area, Ethnic, Cultural and Gender Studies | 2,697 | 2,695 | -0.1% |
| History | 2,585 | 2,618 | 1.3% |
| Other Fields of Study | 86,057 | 81,837 | -4.9% |
| Liberal Arts and Sciences/General Studies | 51,270 | 45,775 | -10.7% |
| Multi/Interdisciplinary Studies | 21,052 | 21,738 | 3.3% |
| Parks, Recreation, Leisure and Fitness Studies | 6,008 | 5,963 | -0.7% |
| Family and Consumer Sciences/Human Sciences 6 | 3,951 | 3,891 | -1.5% |
| Basic Skills | 2,790 | 3,481 | 24.8% |
| Personal and Culinary Services | 671 | 669 | -0.3% |
| Library Science | 307 | 263 | -14.3% |
| Reserve Officer Training Corps | 8 | 57 | 612.5% |
| Undeclared | 18,309 | 20,273 | 10.7% |
| Total | 1,095,299 | 1,075,496 | -1.8% |
Source: Open Doors report of the Institute of International Education, https://www.iie.org/Research-and-Insights/Open- Doors/Data/International-Students/FieldsStudy
The recruitment of international students has been a major lifeline for many graduate degree programs in Engineering and related STEM disciplines. As shown in the table below, a 2015 survey by the National Science Foundation listed a dozen graduate degree fields in which international students comprised more than half (and as high as 81%) of the full-time student population.
| Field of Study | % of International Students | Number of Full-time Graduate Students - International Students | Number of Full-time Graduate Students - U.S. Students |
|---|---|---|---|
| Electrical Engineering | 81% | 32,736 | 7,783 |
| Petroleum Engineering | 81% | 1,258 | 302 |
| Computer Science | 79% | 45,790 | 12,539 |
| Industrial Engineering | 75% | 7,676 | 2,539 |
| Statistics | 69% | 4,321 | 1,966 |
| Economics | 63% | 7,770 | 4,492 |
| Mechanical Engineering | 62% | 12,676 | 7,644 |
| Civil Engineering | 59% | 9,159 | 6,284 |
| Chemical Engineering | 57% | 5,001 | 3,834 |
| Pharmaceutical Sciences | 56% | 1,931 | 1,502 |
| Metallurgical/Materials Eng. | 55% | 3,723 | 3,103 |
| Agricultural Engineering | 53% | 726 | 654 |
| Agricultural Economics | 53% | 881 | 796 |
Source: National Science Foundation, Survey of Graduate Students and Post doctorates, NFAP calculations. U.S. Students include lawful permanent residents. http://nfap.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/The-Importance-of-International-Students.NFAP- Policy-Brief.October-20171.pdf
Enrolling in a STEM-related graduate program makes international students eligible for a special student visa status, the Optional Practical Training (OPT) extension. Students with this status (three-quarters of whom are from Asia) are eligible to remain in the U.S. for three years after graduation, during which many can earn an H-1B visa allowing temporary employment in the country. Graduate programs in business—especially MBA programs—have experienced falling applications for five straight years, and some business schools are applying for a STEM designation that would allow them to offer the OPT extension. Duke University and the University of Wisconsin-Madison are two schools whose business programs have achieved this status, thereby strengthening their international student recruitment programs. iv
The U.S. population (308.7 million in the 2010 census, a 9.7% increase over 2000) stood at 328 million at the beginning of 2020 and is forecast to reach 438 million by 2050. It is expected that 82% of U.S. population growth between 2005 and 2050 will be due to immigrant families that arrived after 2005. The U.S. is home to more foreign-born residents than any other country. Non-Hispanic whites will not be a majority of the U.S. population in 2050. The median age of the U.S. population (37.8 in 2015) will reach 40.8 in 2035, and life expectancy will increase from 76.9 for males and 81.6 for females in 2015 to 80.4 for males and 83.9 for females in 2035 v. A report released by the Census Bureau in January 2020 sounded a note of caution about U.S. population growth, however. The population growth in 2019 was the lowest annual growth since 1918. And when the 2020 census is taken, the bureau predicted, the growth between 2010 and 2019, at 6.3%, will be the lowest 10-year growth rate since the first census was taken in 1790.
Four states lost population in the 2010’s, and nine others (including Hawaiʻi) would have lost population were it not for foreign immigration. (All states but one saw the birthrate decline in the decade.) An added note of caution in the report: the volume of immigration — the engine of population growth given continuing declines in the domestic birthrate — is now falling.
An often-overlooked effect of the Great Recession that began in 2008 was a steep drop in the birthrate in the U.S. This will lead to a decline in the number of high school graduates after 2025. While the number of high school graduates is expected to grow in the U.S. between 2020 and 2025, it will then fall more than 8% between 2025 and 2029. vi
The map (table substituted in this version) below shows the regional contrasts in these effects: the number of high school graduates is already dropping in the Northeast and Midwest, while expansion will continue for a few years in parts of the South and West. (This map, from demographer Nathan Grawe, shows that the projection for Hawaiʻi is for a decline in the number of U.S.traditional-age college- going students in excess of 15% between 2012 and 2029. A different estimate, from WICHE statistics, will be examined in Annex B.)
DECLINING STUDENT DEMAND
A leading state-level forecast of traditional-age college-going students shows sharop declines across much of the country.
| <-15% | -15% to -2.5% | -2.5% to 2.5% | >2.5% |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alabama | Delaware | California | Colorado |
| Alaska | Florida | Oklahoma | Idaho |
| Arizona | Kentucky | n | Montana |
| Arkansas | Louisiana | n | South Carolina |
| Connecticut | Maryland | n | Texas |
| Georgia | Minnesota | n | Utah |
| Hawaii | Missouri | n | Wyoming |
| Illinois | Nevada | n | n |
| Indiana | New Mexico | n | n |
| Iowa | North Carolina | n | n |
| Kansas | Virginia | n | n |
| Maine | West Virginia | n | n |
| Massachusetts | Wisconsin | n | n |
| Michigan | n | n | n |
| Mississippi | n | n | n |
| Nebraska | n | n | n |
| New Hampshire | n | n | n |
| New Jersey | n | n | n |
| New York | n | n | n |
| North Dakota | n | n | n |
| Ohio | n | n | n |
| Oregon | n | n | n |
| Pennsylvania | n | n | n |
| Rhode Island | n | n | n |
| South Dakota | n | n | n |
| Tennessee | n | n | n |
| Vermont | n | n | n |
| Washington | n | n | n |
Birthrates in the nonwhite population currently exceed those of whites, affecting the ethnic composition of school populations. Though the effect varies by region, in the early years of this decade the number of non-white public high school graduates is projected to replace the numerical decrease in white high school graduates.
In the light of this demographic trend, the issue of accessibility of U.S. higher education institutions for nonwhite students — long a topic of concern — became an even more urgent in 2020. In the wake of highly visible incidents of racial injustice — most significantly the killing of George Floyd by Minneapolis police in May — and the subsequent mass protest under the banner “Black Lives Matter” brought the issue of racial equity even more to the forefront. Colleges and universities throughout the country engaged in intense discussions about the racial and ethnic diversity of their student bodies and faculties. Many added the administrative position of “chief diversity officer” to the ranks of campus leadership. In July an influential study, “Segregation Forever: The Continued Underrepresentation of Black and Latino Undergraduates at the Nation’s 101 Most Selective Public Colleges and Universities,” was published by the Education Trust, a nonprofit research organization.vii This study assigned a letter grade to each of the 101 public colleges, depending on what share of their students were Black or Latino in 2017, compared with the percentage of college-eligible 18-to-24-year-olds from those demographic groups in each college’s state. About half of the colleges received passing grades for Latino-student representation, while less than a quarter did for Black- student representation. As summarized by an article on the report in The Chronicle of Higher Education, “one way public colleges measure equity is by achieving an enrollment that mirrors the diversity of their state. By that standard, the report underscores that colleges have a steep climb ahead to meet the diversity and equity demands that they’ve faced for years and that have intensified in recent months.” viii (Notably, the University of Hawaiʻi’s Mānoa campus was one of the 101 colleges included in the study. Even though the state’s population includes relatively small proportions of Blacks and Latinos, the University received grades of F (for Blacks) and C (for Latinos) for its 2017 enrollments, which fell below the standards found “equitable” in the report.)
Looking beyond the “traditional-aged, college-going” cohort, there is a specific population of adult learners who are still a relatively untapped market: the more than 30 million Americans who have some college credits but no degree. Although overall enrollment of undergraduate students over age 25 dropped nationally by 1.5 million in the 2011-2017 period, degree completion programs aimed at attracting this portion of the adult population would seem to hold particular promise. In light of the clear advantages that bachelor’s degree holders gain in achieving higher lifetime earnings, these adults would seem to have an incentive to finish their degrees. To best take advantage of this recruitment opportunity, universities may need to liberalize their policies on acceptance of transfer credit (or their policies of granting credit-by- exam) and ensure that they have adequate counseling resources to assist adults who are returning to school. Moreover, flexible scheduling is required at a time of “full employment.”
Given the bleak outlook provided by analyzing demographic trends and the recent drop in numbers of undergraduate students, the overwhelming majority of U.S. higher education institutions (79%, according to a recent national survey of enrollment managers) are examining strategies for increasing (or even holding onto) enrollments. The Chronicle of Higher Education commissioned a survey by Maguire Associates in September 2019 that produced the following results:
| Strategy | Percent tried |
|---|---|
| Put more resources into digital marketing | 68% |
| Recruit more transfer students (or expand transfer pathways) | 54% |
| Increase investment in Student search | 53% |
| Increase prospective student outreach through visits to high schools | 50% |
| Increase investment of resources in admitted student yield efforts | 50% |
| Expand recruiting out of state | 50% |
| Increase prospective student outreach through partner organizations | 49% |
| Start new academic programs out of perceived demand | 47% |
| Expand recruiting locally | 44% |
| Admit a higher number and/or proportion of applicants | 41% |
Source: Chronicle of Higher Education, The Looming Enrollment Crisis, p 27
In fact, however, adverse demographic trends are incontestable and higher education institutions cannot reverse them. Rather than concentrate solely on increasing the recruitment and enrollment of new students, colleges may be better advised to spend a larger portion of their energies and resources on improving retention and graduation rates of students already recruited. (Six-year graduation rates at the University of Hawaiʻi-Mānoa, though improving, were 60.5% in 2019. The University’s Hilo campus reported a rate of only 44.1%).
Return to Annex A table of contents | previous section | next section: Political Climate